A laymans view of markets, a diary for trading ideas and thoughts
Technical analysis of Major Markets, F/X, and anything that can be traded
This is my diary for trading
Views expressed in this are only for educational purposes. They ARE NOT recommendations to BUY or SELL anything!! ALL comments and criticisms welcome.
FTSE seems to be lagging or is it LEADING?? could be froming a bull falg..but surprising with DAX at ATH it hasn't accelerated UP..as yet...
INSIDER selling seems to be picking up over last few weeks..sells about 2 to 3 times more than buys
Data from here http://j3sg.com/
Gap up open today..maybe some PANIC buying finally coming in ? Sign of retail feeling left out?
Bull flag or topping? Weekly chart may give some clues?
Not much clue here still looks like 2 possibles bull flag or double top.. a decisive break above would mor elikely mean NEW ATH as well..
How about monthly?
Monthly LOOKS like a top and possibly important one forming, HOWEVER a MONTHLY chart is LONG term.. best to keep it in back of mind...
RSI starting to show some neg divergence..
Previous tops took over 8 months to form..whipsaw and false breaks up and down.
DAX MONTHLY Thrown in for good measure..
Only caution is RSI starting to enter overbought, but would suggest at moment no change in trend.
Still twitchy markets, hanging on political situation in USA
Despite all the political turmoil in the USA, the DAX has been very resilient and the down move least pronounced of the European markets.
It seems to suggest that actually the recent down trend is just a correction, and once the political scene in the USA is resolved (which it more likely will be), markets will attempt new highs. QE likely to continue.
The FTSE has corrected more sharply than the DAX and has nit made all time highs yet, possibly due to strength of the pound in recent weeks, plus a hit on retail sector, and mining. QExpecting that more liquidity around the world will eventually raise inflation expectations and tangible assets will rally.
The BULL move since Sept 2011 is STILL intact and EVEN a fall to 7950 wouldn't change this much.
If it finds support at or above this level, a good chance of new ATH or at least a retest of the highs.
ALTernative : The market is in the process of correcting the advance from JUNE 2011 a 62% retrace would be around 7050 OR the market is correcting the advance from SEPTEMBER 2011 , a 62 % retrace would be 6400
Obviously the latter scenarios (IE bigger corrections) will not be straight line affairs, but would change market from BULL to med term bearish (or short term bearish to med term bearish)